Waas-MR

Publication Year: 2024

Access: Open

Link: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004288

Author(s): Julius Schlumberger

Organisation(s)/Authors: Deltares

Description:

Waas-MR is a synthetic multi-risk test case developed to explore the effects of interacting climate hazards and sectoral dependencies on Disaster Risk Management (DRM) decision-making under deep uncertainty. Building on the original “Waas” case, Waas-MR incorporates dynamic interactions between floods and droughts and across sectors - specifically agriculture, shipping, and urban housing. It integrates multiple types of hazard interactions (e.g., droughts amplifying flood impacts, shifting risk perceptions over time) and models how these influence sectoral vulnerabilities and the uptake of DRM measures over a 100-year time horizon. The test case applies the DAPP-MR framework to evaluate sequences of DRM measures (i.e., pathways), highlighting how complex interactions can produce non-linear effects and cross-sectoral feedbacks. Conceptualized using the DPSIR framework, Waas-MR helps decision-makers identify which dependencies significantly affect system dynamics and strategy outcomes. It serves as a controlled environment to test the utility of staged, integrative DRM approaches for developing adaptive, cost-effective strategies in complex multi-risk contexts.

Technical Considerations:

Python

Key Words:

Integrated Assessment Meta-Model, Policy Analysis, Flood, Drought

Simplified conceptualization of the multi-risk model of the Waas-MR case study