Storylines: Difference between revisions
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'''Definition''' | '''Definition''' | ||
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A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no a priori probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on | A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no ''a priori'' probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on | ||
understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in | understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in | ||
those factors). | those factors). | ||
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Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9 | Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9 | ||
'''See also''': [[Scenario]] | '''See also''': [[Scenario|<span style="color: var(--myriad-pink)">Scenario</span>]] | ||
Back to '''[[Definitions]]''' | Back to '''[[Definitions| <span style="color: var(--myriad-blue)">Definitions</span>]]''' | ||
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Latest revision as of 11:41, 23 January 2025
Definition
A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no a priori probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in those factors).
Source
Shepherd, T.G., Boyd, E., Calel, R.A., Chapman, S.C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I.M., Fowler, H.J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., & Senior, C.A. (2018). Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic change, 151(3), pp.555-571.
Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
See also: Scenario
Back to Definitions