Storylines: Difference between revisions
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'''Definition''' | '''Definition''' | ||
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A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no a priori probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on | A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no a priori probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on | ||
understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in | understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in | ||
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Revision as of 12:01, 26 July 2022
Definition
A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no a priori probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in those factors).
Source
Shepherd, T.G., Boyd, E., Calel, R.A., Chapman, S.C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I.M., Fowler, H.J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., & Senior, C.A. (2018). Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic change, 151(3), pp.555-571.
Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
See also: Scenario
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