Storylines: Difference between revisions
Myriad-admin (talk | contribs) No edit summary |
Myriad-admin (talk | contribs) No edit summary |
||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
'''Definition''' | '''Definition''' | ||
<div style="text-align:justify"> | <div style="text-align:justify"> | ||
A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no a priori probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on | A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no ''a priori'' probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on | ||
understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in | understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in | ||
those factors). | those factors). | ||
Revision as of 17:40, 28 October 2022
Definition
A physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. As no a priori probability of the storyline is assessed, it is not a prediction. Emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved and the plausibility of those factors (or of changes in those factors).
Source
Shepherd, T.G., Boyd, E., Calel, R.A., Chapman, S.C., Dessai, S., Dima-West, I.M., Fowler, H.J., James, R., Maraun, D., Martius, O., & Senior, C.A. (2018). Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic change, 151(3), pp.555-571.
Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
See also: Scenario
Back to Definitions