Multi-hazards Scenario Generator

Multi-hazards Scenario Generator

Year of publication: 2021

Access: Publication is behind a paywall. The methodology is an early stage of development, therefore the framework not yet available.

Link: Publication (behind a pay-wall) https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13723

Description

A framework that uses graphs (networks) and a complex systems approach to identify the interactions between multiple hazards, and models potential multi-hazard impacts by considering a number of disaster scenarios. A network of interconnected hazard nodes (footprint, source) and exposed nodes (e.g. houses, roads) is generated and disaster scenarios modelled by cascading events from node to node, with relationships determined through a set of rules and conditions. Each scenario is a single hazard scenario, and impacts are combined in a database. However, it can be applied for multi-hazards, by modelling the cascading impacts from one node to another, based on frequency and magnitude thresholds.

This framework is in early stages of development, therefore is not open access. The supporting publication is also not open access.

The framework has been trialed with respect to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand, with multi-hazard impacts resulting from the earthquake, intense rainfall and landslides. The results showed that the method is able to generate realistic multi-hazard disaster scenarios and impacts.

In theory, this framework can provide an understanding of complex interrelated hazards and cascading impacts that can be useful for disaster risk managers for preparedness and planning.

Technical considerations

This is an early stage of development, therefore the framework not yet available.

Keywords

multi-hazards; impact assessment; infrastructure; disaster scenarios