A quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment framework for compound flooding considering hazard inter-dependencies and interactions

Publication Year: 2022

Access: Open

Link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216942200052X?via%3Dihub

Author(s): Xiaodong Ming, Qiuhua Liang, Richard Dawson, Xilin Xia, Jingming Hou

Organisation(s)/Authors: University, Loughborough, UK, Newcastle University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an, China

Description:

The paper addresses key challenges in multi-hazard risk assessment, focusing on three main areas: (1) the consideration of hazard inter-dependencies, (2) the modelling of hazard interactions, and (3) the development of fully quantitative risk assessments to estimate loss probabilities. It explores compound flooding as a complex multi-hazard problem, which results from the concurrence of multiple hazard drivers such as heavy rainfall, extreme river flow, and storm surge. These hazards often stem from the same weather system, making them statistically interdependent and physically interactive within the same region. The paper proposes an integrated framework to quantify the risk of compound flooding, incorporating hazard, vulnerability, and exposure analyses. Using Copula functions, the framework estimates joint probabilities and return periods of the hazard drivers, which then drive a 2D hydrodynamic model to generate probabilistic inundation maps and frequency-inundation curves. The framework is applied in Greater London and the Thames estuary, demonstrating its capability to produce risk curves and maps that quantify potential loss and illustrate expected annual losses for residential buildings.

Technical Considerations:

Hydrodynamic modelling; statistical modelling; coding software.

Key Words:

Multi-hazard; Risk assessment; Compound flooding; Hydrodynamic model; Copula functions