A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks
Author(s): Tierz, P., Woodhouse, M. J., Phillips, J. C., Sandri, L., Selva, J., Marzocchi, W., & Odbert, H. M.
Organisation(s)/Authors: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma, Rome, Italy; UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Description:
A framework for probabilistic hazard assessment of lahars within a multi-hazard environment developed by Tierz et al. (2017) that uses a Bayesian Belief Network model (Multihaz) for lahar triggering, coupled with a dynamic physical model for lahar propagation (LaharFlow). Multihaz is used to estimate the probability of occurrence of different volumes of lahars given information about regional rainfall, scientific knowledge on lahar triggering mechanisms and probabilistic assessment of available pyroclastic material from tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. LaharFlow propagates the uncertainty and probabilities modeled by Multihaz into hazard footprints of lahars.
Technical Considerations:
Modelling framework not directly available.
Key Words:
Lahars; triggering hazards; hazard modelling; Bayesian Belief Network