MATRIX (New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe)
Author(s): Liu, Z., Nadim, F., Garcia-Aristizabal, A., Mignan, A., Fleming, K. and Luna, B.Q.
Organisation(s)/Authors: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI); Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Naples, Italy; Institute of Geophysics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETHZ); Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ); DNV GL, Høvik, Norway
Description:
The MATRIX framework is a three-level framework for producing a multi-risk assessment from existing multiple single-risk assessments. It considers hazard and risk interactions as well as changes in vulnerability with time. The framework was developed during the EC FP7 Project MATRIX (New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe, 2010-2013). The three-levels of the framework are: qualitative multi-risk analysis semi-quantitative multi-risk analysis quantitative multi-risk analysis. The level 1 analysis comprises of a flow-chart that is intended to hep guide the user decide whether a multi-risk analysis is required and therefore whether to proceed with levels 2 and 3 of the framework. Level 2 consists of assessing interactions between hazards and dynamic vulnerability using a matrix approach. The final level of the framework consists of a detailed multi-risk analysis using a quantitative model based on Bayesian networks (BaNMUR). This is used to estimate the probability of hazard interactions and model changes in vulnerability of a system with time. Uncertainties and their interrelationships are represented by probabilities within the model. Examples demonstrating the application of the framework are available in Liu et al. (2015).
Technical Considerations:
Knowledge of Bayesian networks.
Key Words:
Multi-risk; Cascading hazards; Time-variant vulnerability; dynamic vulnerability; Bayesian network; matrix